This one might come off a little spicy, but that’s not my intention. I don’t aim to offend, but I’ve always believed in telling the truth, even when it bites me. Do what is right and let the consequence follow.
A couple months back, I came across a video that struck a chord. So many applications came to mind, I saved it immediately. Today, I’m sharing it with you because it’s the inspiration behind this month’s blog.
I thought of my kids, teaching them not to blindly follow the crowd is one of the most valuable life skills I can give them. I thought of society and how easily we fall into mob mentality. And of course, I thought of the horse industry. That’s where I’m going to rock the boat a bit.
Too Many Stallions, Too Few Mares
My time in the stallion business has taught me a lot. One of the biggest truths? We’ve got too many stallions standing at stud, all competing for the same pool of mares. The market (breeders) determines the value of a stud fee, and naturally, most are priced at the highest amount that the market will bear. That’s capitalism and there’s nothing wrong with that.
But here’s the thing: semen quality, stallion fertility, and proper management matter. If a stud breeds 100 mares and only 50 get pregnant, that’s a 50% success rate. That’s not a good season. And that means 50 rebreeds the next year, none of which bring in revenue.
That scenario may not be about fertility; it could simply be bad decision-making. A stallion booked to too many mares can’t provide enough high-quality semen per breeding to maintain the commercial standard of at least 70% pregnancy success.
So, what’s the solution? In that case, reduce the book size and raise the fee. Fewer mares. Higher value. Equal revenue. Happier breeders. Fewer rebreeds.
The Metallic Cat Phenomenon
Let’s talk about one of the greats: Metallic Cat. The highest volume I’ve ever heard of in a single season came in 2015, with 505 AQHA-registered foals in the 2016 crop. Five hundred and five! That’s a remarkable number—not just because of the demand, but because of the semen quality and management it took to pull that off. Legendary effort.
[Three of the great sons of Metallic Cat we proudly stand at SDP]
Let’s do the math:
- At 90% success rate: 561 mares bred
- At 80%: 631 mares bred
- At 70% (industry standard): 721 mares bred
That’s remarkable.
But as remarkable as it is, it raised concerns for me and I will explain why.
I say that with the utmost respect. I know and admire the previous owners. I’ve heard nothing but good things about the current owner. Metallic Cat is a phenomenal stallion, and the market responded accordingly.
Still, here’s why I think it raised concerns.
Flooding the Market Isn’t a Growth Strategy
I don’t think that strategy was driven by greed. I think it was designed to dominate. To flood the market. The more foals a stallion sires, the more likely one (or more) wins, and winning produces more demand. That’s how you corner the market.
But that approach is good for me, not good for we.
And we is the breed.
We is the industry.
We is the trainers, breeders, owners, vets, farriers, and everyone who keeps the machine running.
If that same stallion had doubled the stud fee and halved the book, the revenue would’ve been the same. But we’d have had fewer foals, more genetic diversity, and more opportunity for other stallions to thrive. That, in turn, makes more breeders profitable, and when more people profit, the whole industry grows.
Breeders, Don’t Just Follow the Trend
Who should you breed to? That’s not a simple question. Mating selection is part science, part art. Should you go with a proven sire or take a chance on an up-and-coming junior stallion? It’s your money and your call, but here’s what I’ve learned.
Recently, I had a conversation with a good friend and a great stallion owner, someone I’m honored to work with at SDP Buffalo Ranch. We were talking about High Brow CD, a truly exceptional stallion. One of the all-time great sires. That’s not just my opinion, it’s backed by data. You can see his record for yourself on QStallions. His average earnings per performer are higher than most stallions standing today. Significantly higher.
I bring him up because he’s a perfect example of where I believe the market has missed the mark.
High Brow CD is a phenomenal son of High Brow Cat, the greatest sire of all time. Metallic Cat, also by High Brow Cat—is the most successful son that legend ever produced. Let’s look at the data:
Let that sink in.
The average return on High Brow CD is over three times higher than Metallic Cat. That’s not a dig on Metallic Cat, he’s an outstanding sire. But when you look at the 2022 crop, he had 5.24 times more foals on the ground than High Brow CD. The difference? Strategy. Demand. And a market that tends to follow the loudest buzz.
I’m not trying to diminish Metallic Cat’s greatness, he’s earned every accolade. But I am challenging the market to think more critically. It’s easy to get caught up in the herd, expecially when the buzz is loud.
Breed to Win, Not to Fit In
If we want to move the breed forward, we need to breed for performance, not popularity. Here’s a rule I’ve found helpful:
Breed proven sires to unproven mares. Breed proven mares to junior stallions.
Why? Because pairing unproven mares with reliable stallions gives them the best chance to become producers. And pairing a proven mare with a junior stallion gives the next generation of sires a fair shot, without gambling on both sides of the pedigree. It is a balance or being wise for your mare and also feeding the market’s appetite to breed to the next big thing.
Of course, household economics should always trump theory. Don’t bite off more than you can chew. Stay within what you can afford today and what you’ll be proud to feed tomorrow.
What’s Best for the Industry
To me, the ideal book size is 100–150 mares, priced according to the stallion’s value and semen performance. Not mandated. Not regulated. Just a philosophy I believe in, because it’s sustainable and healthier for everyone.
This same mindset applies to stallion incentives, which have become the industry’s newest craze.
We already have too many stallions based on pool of mares. Now we have too many incentives. Stallion owners are stretching thin, paying into multiple programs without a clear return. In my experience, 90% don’t get their money back. Harsh? Maybe. But true and backed by both data and personal experience.
Full disclosure: I’m a Co-Founder of Legendary Stakes, a stallion-driven program that I believe is built for long-term success. But this blog isn’t a sales pitch, we can talk more about that another time.
At SDP Buffalo Ranch, we’re also in the process of launching our own incentive. It’s taken time because I won’t green-light anything I don’t believe in. We plan to announce it in August 2025, and when we do, I’ll explain why it’s different.
Let’s Think Bigger
The path forward isn’t about dominating, it’s about elevating.
If you’re a stallion owner, ask: Is this strategy good for me… or good for we?
If you’re a breeder, ask: Am I supporting a program that helps the whole tide rise?
We don’t need to follow the crowd. Let’s lead with vision.
More diversity. More opportunity. More growth.
That’s the future I want to build.
